India is likely to witness above-normal rainfall in September, closing a monsoon season already marked by devastating floods, landslides and widespread damage in several states, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.
According to the forecast, rainfall for the month is expected to exceed 109 per cent of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. Most regions are set to record normal to above-normal rain, though parts of the northeast and east, areas of extreme south peninsular India, and some pockets in northwest India may see below-normal precipitation.
Warning for Northern States
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra cautioned that heavy showers could trigger landslides and flash floods in Uttarakhand, while also disrupting normal life in south Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan.
“Many rivers originate in Uttarakhand. So, heavy rainfall means many rivers will be flooded, which will affect cities and towns downstream. We should keep this in mind,” Mohapatra said.
He added that intense downpours are also expected in the upper catchment areas of the Mahanadi River in Chhattisgarh, raising concerns about waterlogging and possible floods.
Temperature Outlook
The IMD said average maximum temperatures during September are likely to remain normal to below normal across many parts of west-central, northwest and southern India. However, they are expected to be above normal in several areas of east-central, east and northeast India, along with parts of northwest India and the western coastal belt.
Long-Term Trends
IMD data shows a slight increasing trend in September rainfall since 1980, with exceptions in years such as 1986, 1991, 2001, 2004, 2010, 2015 and 2019, when rainfall was below average.
August Records Broken in Northwest India
The weather agency also noted that northwest India recorded 265 mm of rainfall in August — the highest for the month since 2001 and the 13th highest since 1901.
The region has experienced excess rainfall throughout this year’s monsoon season. June recorded 111 mm, 42 per cent above normal, while July saw 237.4 mm, 13 per cent above normal. August rainfall exceeded the average of 197.1 mm by 34.5 per cent.
Cumulatively, northwest India received 614.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and August 31, about 27 per cent above the long-term normal of 484.9 mm.
This unusually high rainfall has already fuelled extreme weather events across the region. Punjab endured its worst flooding in decades, with swollen rivers breaching canals, inundating vast stretches of farmland, and displacing hundreds of thousands of people.
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