Could the Gaza deal lead to something even bigger?

This is a historic moment for the Middle East. The coming days will be crucial. 

Critical for the immediate success of Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan. But also for hopes it could lead to something even more important, progress towards a broader peace.

There is plenty that could still go wrong. But so far so good.

Follow the latest updates on the Gaza ceasefire deal

Hamas seems ready to give up its hostages believing American assurances Israel will not start the war again when they have.

And Israel is withdrawing its forces on the lines outlined in the deal.

If the deal does hold then what next?

Here are the most pressing questions.

What becomes of Hamas? It is meant to disarm and not be part of any future government in Gaza. What if it goes back on that? What if it retreats to the shadows, regroups and rearms and goes back to its old ways?

Then, who is going to keep the peace? The plan is for an international peacekeeping force overseen by the Americans but not involving US troops on the ground, using soldiers from Arab countries and Turkey instead.

Will that force materialise and will it be effective? The history of peacekeeping operations in the region is not an encouraging one.

Then how is Gaza going to be run?

There’s been talk of a government of technocrats, people who know how to get things done, and of an oversight board run by President Trump, and of Tony Blair coming in as governor.

It will be a massive task. Rebuilding Gaza will cost billions of dollars and at the moment plans seem vague at best.

It could all come unstuck.

But then again, there are reasons for some optimism. Could this breakthrough lead to more sustained progress in efforts to build a lasting peace?

October 7th and the events that followed it including the Gaza war have changed so much in the Middle East.

Events have laid bare the utter futility of the past.

Read more:
How withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza could work
How two years of war have shattered the Gaza Strip

Israel’s policy of dividing and ruling the Palestinians and weakening them so they could never form their own state has ended in tragedy and colossal failure.

Hamas has brought its people nothing but misery and carnage.

There is on both sides a yearning for a new start.

There is also an American president who is prepared to put massive pressure on Israel unlike his predecessors and who is hungry for peace.

The region is lining up to push the chances of peace. President Trump has galvanised the likes of Turkey, Egypt and nations in the gulf.

In Israel there may be a fresh start. Its hardline right-wing government might have to give way to new leaders with new ideas.

And the country most likely to wreck the chances of progress, Iran, is massively weakened, pummelled by Israeli air power, and its allies and proxies humbled.

We should not over-egg the chances of further progress. In this rough neighbourhood there is always a multitude of reasons why this multi-stage deal might still fall apart, let alone lead to a much bigger peace.

But there is a chance now. The past two years have broken up the Middle East and so many of its old rules of operating. Putting it back together offers an opportunity.

It will require a huge amount of political will and leadership but there is the chance however slim of remaking the region in a way that gives its people a better future.