Explained: Why Indian IT companies may easily digest H-1B fee hike, Anil Singhvi weighs in

Indian IT companies are expected to face only limited disruption following the US announcement of a $100,000 one time fee on new H-1B visa applications, according to market expert Anil Singhvi, managing editor of Zee Business. Singhvi suggested that the move is more “signal than shock” for the sector, with only mild implications for business sentiment and market performance.

Anil Singhvi: “Trump’s action more about signaling than disruption”

Speaking on the development, Singhvi said, “It is nearly impossible to predict Trump. He talks friendship and suddenly flips. The initial shock of the H-1B fee looked alarming, but on reviewing the details, it is not significant. From a business and market sentiment perspective, the impact is mildly negative.” Singhvi added that the IT index could see a minor 1–2 per cent dip, while midcap IT firms like Persistent Systems, Coforge, Firstsource, Mphasis, Cyient, and Sasken Technologies reported no material effect.

Indian IT firms better positioned than global peers

Global brokerage Nuvama noted that Indian IT companies have steadily reduced dependence on H-1B visas over the past eight years. Localisation levels now exceed 60 per cent, compared with less than 30 per cent during Trump’s first term. Less than half of U.S.-based Indian IT employees rely on H-1B visas, cushioning the sector from any major disruption.

Limited margin impact, Nomura analysis

According to Nomura, the fee applies only to new applications after September 21, 2025. Existing visa holders and renewals are unaffected. Fresh filings constitute only 17 per cent of total applications, meaning even if firms absorb the cost, the impact on earnings per share is limited to 0.5–6 per cent. Nomura expects IT companies to mitigate costs via nearshoring, offshoring, and local hiring, minimizing short-term pressure.

Long-term strategy and sector resilience

Nasscom highlighted that H-1B workers make up less than 1 per cent of the workforce for top Indian IT firms, with companies spending over $1 billion on training and local recruitment in the U.S. The new fee, effective 2026 for fresh applications, allows firms time to scale local hiring, upskilling programs, and global captive centers (GCCs).

Outlook: Sector largely insulated

Experts agree the H-1B fee will not derail growth. Major firms such as TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and HCLTech may face minor margin pressure, while midcap players remain insulated. Singhvi concluded: “Indian IT has adapted over the years and is well-equipped to shrug off this H-1B fee hike.”