Radioactive issues could still derail Gaza ceasefire despite momentum for peace

The speed with which the diplomacy is moving is dizzying but the question remains whether or not it will lead to concrete developments, or instead become mired in quicksand like so many previous peace processes in the Middle East.

I think the first thing is to be clear that within what’s referred to as Trump’s peace plan there are essentially two component parts.

The first bit is about achieving a ceasefire and bringing back the hostages, the second is about achieving a comprehensive peace in the wider region and the distant prospect of Palestinian statehood.

Read more: Gaza latest as world leaders welcome Hamas response

It goes without saying that ushering in a ceasefire, while not easy, is far more achievable than resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict completely.

But what is clear is that this is a significant moment.

What we do know is that Hamas has said it will accept parts of the plan.

It means there’s now real momentum building around the proposal.

After nearly two years of intense and devastating fighting, the region could finally be moving towards a lasting ceasefire – possibly very soon – along with the release of the remaining hostages.

In many ways Hamas had no choice but to accept the deal – it was under extreme pressure, not just from the US but also Arab countries.

However the statement issued by the group has a number of caveats and it’s unclear whether the US and, to a certain extent Israel, will tolerate any real substantive negotiations.

Senior Hamas sources have already said it’s unrealistic that the hostages can be released in the next 72 hours: there are too many things – like where exactly the Israeli forces withdraw to – that need to be resolved.

Another key issue that stands out is that of disarmament.

Hamas’s statement avoids any promise to give up its weapons, even though the plan demands it.

For Israel and the United States, that’s non-negotiable.

Hamas also knows that once it’s released the hostages it has little if any leverage at all and effectively this deal relies on them trusting the word of Donald Trump – a big ask.

And these are just the bits to get to the ceasefire.

On the wider issues Trump’s twenty-point plan may be ambitious but it is also vague.

It leaves many questions unanswered about borders, reconstruction, governance, and security as well as Palestinian self-determination.

All radioactive issues that have destroyed previous efforts for peace.

Real progress going forward will depend on detailed negotiations and genuine good faith from all sides, something that’s often been missing.

Even so, there have already been some striking developments.

For the first time, a US president has commanded Israel to halt its bombing of Gaza, and the Israeli military has reportedly shifted into a defensive stance.

It’s a remarkable display of how Trump’s personal influence and power is reshaping the course of this war.

For now then, this looks like the beginning of the end of active fighting, but not yet a comprehensive peace.

It may though be the closest the region has come in years to something that could lead that to that destination.