Tejashwi Yadav’s CM Dreams Could Be Over Before It Starts If Congress Doesn’t Get 70 Seats

In a state that has seen more political somersaults than a circus act, Bihar’s Opposition is currently performing its most ambitious trick yet: The Great Alliance That Can’t Stop Falling Apart.

As the countdown begins for the October 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, the so-called Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) is busy doing everything except looking grand.

Let’s break it down.

Alliance Or Awkward Arrangement?

The Mahagathbandhan today resembles an overbooked wedding where every in-law wants to walk the bride down the aisle. You’ve got:

• The RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal), led by Tejashwi Yadav. Yadav claims the first right to the microphone, spotlight, and the CM’s chair, once sat on by his father, Lalu Prasad Yadav.
• The Congress, flexing its muscles and legacy over seat share. Its flex comes despite flop shows in multiple state elections since 2020. In fact, its performance in the last three Bihar elections has been simply pathetic. (19 seats in 2020, 27 in 2015, 4 in 2010)
• CPI(ML), CPI, CPI(M), fighting for ideological relevance and seats. Its performance has been no better than the Congress’s. It won 12 of 19 seats in 2020 and 2 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. 
• The Vikassheel Insaan Party, a relatively new party struggling to carve out a niche for itself. Its only flex — founder Mukesh Sahani, former Animal Husbandry Minister in the Nitish Kumar Cabinet.

And the BJP-JDU-NDA? They’re just sitting back, watching the Mahagathbandhan rehearse a tragicomedy for free.

Tejashwi Yadav: The Lone Star?

On June 22, Tejashwi Yadav emphatically declared there was “no chance” of Nitish Kumar’s return to the alliance. Now, where have we heard that before? Oh right! Nitish himself had said there was no chance of returning to the NDA fold. BJP’s Amit Shah, too, had said the doors for reconciliation were forever closed for Nitish. But more on that later.

After months of being the ‘softy’, Tejashwi has decided to take a hardline stance against Nitish. He recently called Nitish Kumar “extra baggage” for any alliance. If there were any bridges left between the JD(U) and RJD, that statement threw a Molotov cocktail at them.

In response, JD(U)’s rank and file branded Tejashwi as “arrogant” and “hogger of the limelight”. Now, it seems that the only light he’s getting is from burning bridges.

Tejashwi’s confidence might be rooted in RJD’s commanding 2020 performance of 75 seats and his better-than-expected Lok Sabha showing in 2024. But let’s be clear: if arrogance were electricity, Bihar wouldn’t need free power schemes.

Who Wants To Be Chief Minister?

This is the question tearing the Mahagathbandhan apart. Tejashwi has made no secret of his ambitions. RJD posters across Patna already scream “Future CM, Tejashwi!” — no questions asked, no votes needed.

But Congress? Well, they’re not thrilled. They want a “consensus candidate”, preferably one not named Yadav. And the Left? They just want to be heard before the big boys start negotiating ministries they won’t get.

Even within Congress, whispers say: “Do we even want to be part of this mess? Yet, their leaders are still asking for 70 seats — double the number they even stood a chance of winning last time.”

Seat-Sharing Or Self-Sabotage?

If alliances were determined by who deserves which seat, Bihar would be a chessboard. Instead, what we have is an epic tug-of-war with no rope. Talks have dragged on. The Left has already launched its campaigns. Congress wants seat allocation “based on data,” while RJD wants it based on “ground strength,” which is code for “Give us the seats or else”.

Going by various media reports, the scene thus far is laid out as below:

• RJD wants 140+ out of 243 as per reports. On the other hand, it is not comfortable in ceding 70 seats as last time to the Congress.
• Congress wants 70 (same as in 2020). If they don’t get 70 seats, the party has threatened not to support Tejashwi’s CM candidature. Although there is no party stance on the matter, Congress’s Akhilesh Singh and Kanhaiya Kumar have backed Tejashwi as the CM candidate. Ironically, the RJD was not happy with Kanhaiya Kumar’s induction into the Congress in 2021. And Kanhaiya spoke against caste-politics, a matter now so passionately followed up by the Opposition. 
• CPI(ML) + other lLeft parties want 40-50 seats. Why? Because the heart wants what the heart wants; it doesn’t matter what voters want.
• The VIP, led by Mukesh Sahni, a Nishad leader, wants 40+ seats and the Deputy CM’s post if the alliance wins. It wants to leverage its numerical strength (in terms of the population) to bargain for more seats. The Nishad community is believed to be just behind the Yadavs in terms of sheer numbers.

What Do Other Allies In India Bloc Want

Apart from these ‘friends’ for benefit, there are other INDIA partners contesting in Bihar. However, they seem to be least interested in the “sharing is caring” philosophy. For instance, the Aam Aadmi Party is going solo on all seats. Although AAP doesn’t have much of a foothold in Bihar, and is likely to lose deposits on most seats, it is not deterred.

Hemant Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, too, is likely to go solo. According to media reports, JMM has identified 12 seats and is exploring more to contest.

What’s Happening In The NDA Camp?

The NDA is seemingly more sorted than the Opposition. However, with “Modi’s Hanuman” and LJP-Ram Vilas chief Chirag Paswan deciding to contest the elections himself, the stakes are higher. The NDA is united on one aspect, at least: Nitish Kumar is the coalition’s candidate for the Chief Minister’s chair.

However, given Nitish Kumar’s “Aya Ram, Gaya Ram” history, which earned him the moniker ‘Palturam’, the BJP would be wary. As per reports quoting sources, the BJP wants to contest 95-100 seats, based on the Lok Sabha constituency performances last year.

On the other hand, Nitish’s JD(U) would want to play the elder brother’s role in the NDA. The Lok Sabha performance for both the BJP and JD(U) was nearly the same. JD-U: 12/16 and BJP: 12/17; and the party is a major NDA partner at the Centre. Now, in the assembly polls, the JD(U) could leverage its positions for at least 100-110 seats. 

This equation would leave 40 seats for the three allies – the LJP, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha. And Chirag Paswan’s performance and equation with the BJP could just earn him around 25 seat tickets.

AIMIM And The Fringe Factor

Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is eyeing Seemanchal again. Some of the Opposition parties have accused the AIMIM of being the BJP’s B-team as it cuts into the Muslim vote share that the RJD enjoys. In the 2020 election, the AIMIM, allying with Mayawati’s BSP and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, seemingly split the RJD’s votes and bagged 5 seats in the Seemanchal region (in Kishanganj, Purnea, and Araria) of Bihar.

Owaisi, however, seems unfazed by the allegations. He is reportedly in talks with the RJD and Congress to decide on a possible alliance as Owaisi doesn’t want “an NDA government” in Bihar.

What Is the Mahagathbandhan Offering?

Apart from not being NDA, here’s the Opposition’s value proposition:

• Free electricity for all – Courtesy RJD.
• Pensions for the elderly, poor, and possibly anyone with a pulse.
• Rs 2,500 monthly for women (Mai Bahin Maan Yojana) – a direct answer to the BJP’s Lakhpati Didi scheme.
• Jobs, jobs, jobs – though no one’s clear on the roadmap.
• No implementation of the Waqf Bill in Bihar

Is it a vision? Or a wishlist? Either way, they’re betting voters will forget that most of these promises are copied and pasted from their own 2020 manifesto that went nowhere. “It’s up to them,” he said.

Grand But Not United

Apart from the seat-sharing issues, the RJD is dealing with the familial and eventually party issues concerning Tej Pratap Yadav. He was even expelled for his “behaviour”.

Here’s the kicker: The Mahagathbandhan keeps telling voters, “We’re united to defeat the BJP.” But every leaked meeting, angry tweet, and awkward press conference screams the opposite.

Even during the Jharkhand polls, Congress chose to protect its interests with Hemant Soren as Tejashwi Yadav cut a sad figure during the coalition meetings. And we saw how the “united” Opposition squabbled over seats during the Lok Sabha polls last year.

At this rate, their alliance could become the BJP’s most reliable ally — unintentionally, of course.