The first footage of Steve Witkoff in Moscow probably won’t fill Ukraine and its allies with confidence.
The US Special Envoy can be seen strolling leisurely through a park near the Kremlin, alongside Russia’s investment chief Kirill Dmitriev.
Witkoff has his shades on and is in no obvious hurry.
In another video, he is smiling and shaking hands with Vladimir Putin – not the look of a man who is supposedly in town to talk tough with the Russian president.
Despite the laid-back appearance of its emissary, though, there is a sense the Trump administration’s stance towards Moscow has substantially hardened.
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What could be on the table in Witkoff’s talks with Putin?
The US president’s rhetoric is the sharpest it’s ever been. What’s more, it’s been consistent.
Donald Trump has criticised Putin previously – in May, he called him “crazy” – but each time has swung back into friendlier territory.
In the past few weeks, however, his language has only got harsher, describing Russia’s continued attacks as “disgusting” and shortening a deadline for Moscow to end the war from 50 days to 10. It expires on Friday.
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Witkoff took an early morning walk through Zaryadye Park, a stone’s throw from the Kremlin, with Kirill Dmitriev. Pic: Zvezda
Steve Witkoff walking in Zaryadye park next to the Kremlin. Pic: Zvezda
If Trump doesn’t get what he wants, he’s threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, and secondary sanctions on countries that buy its exports.
That could prove painful for the Kremlin if those secondary tariffs force countries like China and India to stop buying up Russian oil, which until now has provided an economic lifeline to Moscow.
But will US pressure work? Will Witkoff be able to extract any meaningful concessions?
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I think it’s unlikely Putin will agree to a full ceasefire. Russian forces continue to advance on the battlefield, so there’s no military incentive to pause the fighting.
And there’s been no sign that he’s willing to dilute his goal of seizing four eastern Ukrainian territories in their entirety.
But he may offer Washington something, which can be presented as a concession, in order to stave off sanctions.
We’ve seen that before when Trump’s patience has worn thin.
There was the three-day Easter truce, and the 30-day moratorium on strikes targeting energy infrastructure.
This time, there are reports that Russia might agree to an air truce.
But it’s unclear if another pseudo-ceasefire will be enough to placate the American president.
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